Government policies to increase economic growth are focused on trying to increase aggregate demand (demand side policies) or increase aggregate supply/productivity (supply side policies)

政府提高经济增长的政策主要是试图增加总需求（需求方政策）或增加总供应/生产力（供应方政策）

• Demand side policies include 需求方政策包括:Fiscal policy (cutting taxes/increasing government spending)Monetary policy (cutting interest rates) 财政政策（减税/增加政府开支）货币政策（降低利率）
• Supply side policies include 供应方政策包括:Privatisation, deregulation, tax cuts, free trade agreements (free market supply side policies)Improved education and training, improved infrastructure. (interventionist supply side policies) 私有化，放松管制，减税，自由贸易协定（自由市场供应方政策）改善教育和培训，改善基础设施。(干预性的供应方政策)

Demand side policies are important during a recession or period of economic stagnation. Supply side policies are relevant for improving the long run growth in productivity.

需求方政策在经济衰退或经济停滞时期很重要。供应方政策与改善生产力的长期增长有关。

Demand side policies 需求方政策

Demand side policies aim to increase aggregate demand (AD). This needs to be done during a recession or a period of below-trend growth. If there is spare capacity (negative output gap) then demand-side policies can play a role in increasing the rate of economic growth. However, if the economy is already close to full capacity (trend rate of growth) a further increase in AD will mainly cause inflation.

需求方政策的目的是增加总需求（AD）。这需要在经济衰退或增长低于趋势的时期进行。如果有剩余产能（负产出缺口），那么需求方政策可以在提高经济增长速度方面发挥作用。然而，如果经济已经接近满负荷（趋势增长率），进一步增加AD将主要导致通货膨胀。

In this case, the economy at Y1 has spare capacity. Therefore an increase in AD leads to a rise in real GDP.

在这种情况下，Y1的经济有闲置产能。因此，AD的增加会导致实际GDP的上升。

Monetary Policy 货币政策

Monetary policy is the most common tool for influencing economic activity. To boost AD, the Central Bank (or government) can cut interest rates. Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing, encouraging investment and consumer spending. Lower interest rates also reduce the incentive to save, making spending more attractive instead. Lower interest rates will also reduce mortgage interest payments, increasing disposable income for consumers.

货币政策是影响经济活动的最常见工具。为了促进AD，中央银行（或政府）可以降低利率。较低的利率降低了借贷成本，鼓励投资和消费支出。较低的利率也减少了储蓄的动力，使消费反而更有吸引力。较低的利率也将减少抵押贷款利息的支付，增加消费者的可支配收入。

In 2009, base rates were cut to 0.5% to try and stimulate economic growth in the UK.

2009年，基准利率被降至0.5%，以试图刺激英国的经济增长。

Evaluation of Monetary Policy 货币政策的评估

Lower interest rates may not always boost spending. In a liquidity trap, lower interest rates may not increase spending because people are trying to pay back debts. In 2009, UK interest rates were cut to 0.5%, but spending remained subdued. Banks were unwilling to lend because of liquidity shortages. Therefore, although in theory, it was cheap to borrow, it was hard to actually create credit. Therefore, this shows monetary policy can be ineffective in boosting economic growth

较低的利率可能并不总是能促进支出。在流动性陷阱中，较低的利率可能不会增加支出，因为人们正在努力偿还债务。2009年，英国的利率被削减到0.5%，但支出仍然受到抑制。由于流动性短缺，银行不愿意放贷。因此，虽然在理论上，借贷很便宜，但实际上很难创造信贷。因此，这表明货币政策在促进经济增长方面可能是无效的。

Another criticism of monetary policy is that cutting interest rates very low could distort future economic activity. For example, the US cut interest rates following the economic uncertainty of 9/11. These low-interest rates encouraged people to take on ambitious loans and mortgages; this was a factor behind the US housing bubble. Therefore cutting interest rates, at the wrong time, can contribute to a future housing and asset bubble which will destabilise economic growth. However, in 2009-12, the depth of the financial crisis means there is no immediate danger of a housing bubble, so it was appropriate to keep interest rates at zero.

对货币政策的另一个批评是，把利率降得很低可能会扭曲未来的经济活动。例如，美国在9/11事件的经济不确定性之后削减了利率。这些低利率鼓励人们接受雄心勃勃的贷款和抵押贷款；这是美国房地产泡沫的一个因素。因此，在错误的时间削减利率，可能有助于未来的住房和资产泡沫，这将破坏经济增长的稳定性。然而，在2009-12年，金融危机的深度意味着没有立即出现住房泡沫的危险，所以将利率保持在零是合适的。

2. Quantitative Easing 量化宽松

In a liquidity trap, where lower interest rates fail to boost demand, the Central Bank may need to pursue more unconventional types of monetary policy. Quantitative easing involves increasing the money supply and buying bonds to keep bond rates low. The hope is that the increase in the money supply and lower interest rates will boost investment and economic activity. The fear is that increasing the money supply could cause inflation. Though evidence from 2009-12 suggests that the inflationary impact was minimal. Without quantitative easing, the recession was likely to be deeper, though QE alone failed to return the economy back to a normal growth projection.

在流动性陷阱中，较低的利率不能促进需求，中央银行可能需要采取更多非常规类型的货币政策。量化宽松涉及增加货币供应量和购买债券，以保持低的债券利率。希望的是，货币供应量的增加和较低的利率将促进投资和经济活动。人们担心的是，增加货币供应量可能会导致通货膨胀。尽管2009-12年的证据表明，通货膨胀的影响是最小的。如果没有量化宽松政策，经济衰退可能会更深，尽管量化宽松本身未能使经济恢复到正常的增长预测。

3. Fiscal Policy 财政政策

The government can boost demand by cutting tax and increasing government spending. Lower income tax will increase disposable income and encourage consumer spending. Higher government spending will create jobs and provide an economic stimulus.

政府可以通过减税和增加政府开支来促进需求。降低所得税将增加可支配收入，鼓励消费者支出。更高的政府支出将创造就业机会并提供经济刺激。

The problem with expansionary fiscal policy is that it leads to an increase in government borrowing. To finance this extra spending, the government have to borrow from the private sector. If the economy is already growing, then higher government borrowing can crowd out the private sector. Expansionary fiscal policy is also criticised by those who fear it is an excuse to permanently increase the size of the government sector.

扩张性财政政策的问题是，它导致了政府借款的增加。为了给这些额外的支出提供资金，政府必须向私营部门借款。如果经济已经在增长，那么更多的政府借贷会排挤私营部门。扩张性财政政策也受到了一些人的批评，他们担心这是一个永久扩大政府部门规模的借口。

However, if the economy sees a rapid fall in private spending, and a rise in the saving ratio, expansionary fiscal policy can help provide a boost to demand in the economy without causing crowding out.

然而，如果经济中的私人支出迅速下降，储蓄率上升，扩张性财政政策可以帮助促进经济中的需求，而不会造成排挤现象。

In 2009/10, UK government borrowing increased as they pursued expansionary fiscal policy.

在2009/10年度，由于英国政府推行扩张性财政政策，其借款有所增加。

The aim of expansionary fiscal policy is for the government to offset the fall in private sector spending. Similarly, during a period of economic expansion, the government may need to do the opposite of higher taxes and lower spending to create a budget surplus.

扩张性财政政策的目的是让政府抵消私人部门支出的下降。同样，在经济扩张时期，政府可能需要做相反的事情，即提高税收和降低支出，以创造预算盈余。

4. Devaluation 贬值

For countries stuck in a fixed exchange rate. Devaluation can help restore competitiveness and boost domestic demand. A fall in the exchange rate makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive.

对于停留在固定汇率的国家。贬值可以帮助恢复竞争力和促进国内需求。汇率的下降使出口更便宜，进口更昂贵。

For example, Argentina and Iceland both had rapid devaluations, which in the medium term helped their economic recovery. The UK also benefited from leaving the exchange rate mechanism in 1992.

例如，阿根廷和冰岛都进行了快速贬值，这在中期内有助于其经济复苏。英国也从1992年脱离汇率机制中受益。

The disadvantage of devaluation is that it can lead to short-term economic pain. Rising import prices increase inflation and reduce standards of living. Devaluation is also seen as a sign of economic and political weakness.

贬值的缺点是，它可能导致短期经济痛苦。进口价格的上涨会加剧通货膨胀，降低生活水平。贬值也被看作是经济和政治疲软的标志。

In the case of Eurozone countries, devaluation is needed (see: competitiveness in Europe), but it is much harder to devalue and leave the exchange rate because of the likelihood of capital flight.

就欧元区国家而言，需要贬值（见：欧洲的竞争力），但由于资本外逃的可能性，贬值和离开汇率的难度更大。

Limitations of demand side policies 需求方政策的局限性

Demand-side policies cannot increase the rate of growth above the long-run trend rate without causing an unsustainable boom and bust.

需求方政策不能在不引起不可持续的繁荣和萧条的情况下将增长率提高到长期趋势率以上。

For example, in 1972, the UK chancellor, Anthony Barber announced a ‘dash for growth’. Taxes were cut against a backdrop of rising house prices and inflation. This led to the Barber boom – rapid economic growth. However, it also caused a spike in inflation, and the growth proved unsustainable.

例如，在1972年，英国财政大臣安东尼-巴伯宣布了 "冲刺增长"。在房价和通货膨胀上升的背景下，税收被削减。这导致了巴伯的繁荣--经济快速增长。然而，这也造成了通货膨胀的飙升，而且这种增长被证明是不可持续的。

In the 1980s, there was a repeat boom and bust. In the late 1980s, there was a loosening of monetary and fiscal policy. This led to very high growth and inflation; this growth proved unsustainable, leading to the recession of 1991-92.

在20世纪80年代，出现了重复的繁荣和萧条。在80年代末，货币和财政政策出现了松动。这导致了非常高的增长和通货膨胀；这种增长证明是不可持续的，导致了1991-92年的衰退。

In some cases, demand-side policies need to be used to limit the growth of aggregate demand. It is necessary to avoid an economic boom, where growth proves unsustainable and inflationary. Managing AD to avoid boom and bust cycles can help provide a longer period of economic expansion.

在某些情况下，需要使用需求方政策来限制总需求的增长。这对于避免经济繁荣是必要的，因为在这种情况下，增长被证明是不可持续的和通货膨胀的。管理AD以避免繁荣和萧条的周期，可以帮助提供一个较长的经济扩张期。

Supply-side policies 供应方政策

The alternative strategy for improving economic growth is to use supply-side policies. These attempt to increase productivity and efficiency of the economy.

改善经济增长的另一个战略是使用供应方政策。这些政策试图提高经济的生产力和效率。

Supply-side policies include 供应方政策包括:

Lower Income Taxes 降低所得税. It is argued lower income tax can boost the incentive to work and increase labour supply. It is possible, if income taxes were excessive, then cutting them may encourage people to work more. However, this argument is often exaggerated. Reducing the basic rate of income tax from 23% to 22% would have a very minimal impact on labour supply. With a tax cut, there is both an income and substitution effect. The income effect states that higher taxes make people work longer hours to achieve their target income. (economics of tax cuts)

有人认为，降低所得税可以提高工作的积极性，增加劳动力供给。有可能的是，如果所得税过高，那么削减所得税可能会鼓励人们更多地工作。然而，这种说法往往被夸大了。将所得税的基本税率从23%降至22%，对劳动力供给的影响非常小。在减税的情况下，同时存在着收入和替代效应。收入效应指出，较高的税收使人们工作更长时间以实现其目标收入。(减税的经济学原理)

Flexible labour markets 灵活的劳动力市场. Highly regulated labour markets, with excessive regulation, may discourage firms from employing workers and setting up in the first place. It is argued that countries such as France have too much labour market restrictions, such as the cost of firing workers, maximum working week and minimum wages. More flexible labour markets can thus provide a long-term boost to investment. However, there is a trade-off. More flexible labour markets could increase job insecurity and lead to harmful effects on labour productivity.

高度监管的劳动力市场，过度的监管，可能会使企业首先不愿意雇用工人和设立公司。有人认为，像法国这样的国家有太多的劳动力市场限制，如解雇工人的费用、最高工作周和最低工资。因此，更灵活的劳动力市场可以为投资提供长期的推动。然而，这也是一种折衷。更灵活的劳动力市场可能会增加工作的不安全性，并导致对劳动生产率的有害影响。

Betterｕｎｉｏｎrelationships 更好的工会关系. In the 1970s, the UK economy suffered because of poor industrial relations. There were frequent strikes which stopped production. With an adversarial attitude, it was difficult to promote more labour efficient production processes. Reducing the power of trades unions can help to improve labour productivity.

在20世纪70年代，英国的经济因为不良的劳资关系而受到影响。频繁的罢工使生产停止。在对抗性的态度下，很难促进更多的劳动效率的生产过程。减少工会的权力可以帮助提高劳动生产率。

Privatisation and deregulation 私有化和放松管制. Privatising industries can increase efficiency as private firms have a greater profit incentive to cut costs and boost productivity.

行业私有化可以提高效率，因为私营企业有更大的利润动力来削减成本和提高生产力。

Limitations of Supply-Side Policies 供应方政策的局限性

• Supply-side policies can take considerable time. For example, if you invested in better education and training, it could take several years for this to lead to higher labour productivity. 供应方政策可能需要相当长的时间。例如，如果你投资于更好的教育和培训，这可能需要几年的时间来提高劳动生产率。
• In a recession, supply-side policies are not going to solve the fundamental problem of deficiency of aggregate demand. In a recession increasing the flexibility of labour markets and encouraging investment may help to some extent. But, unless there is sufficient demand, firms will be reluctant to increase production and set up new business ventures. For example, in how to deal with youth unemployment, the ECB president mentioned a ‘growth pact’. But, this growth pact is only considering supply side policies and not the lack of demand in countries with high unemployment. 在经济衰退时，供应方政策不会解决总需求不足的根本问题。在经济衰退中，增加劳动力市场的灵活性和鼓励投资可能在一定程度上有帮助。但是，除非有足够的需求，否则企业将不愿意增加生产和建立新的商业企业。例如，在如何处理青年失业问题上，欧洲央行行长提到了一个 "增长公约"。但是，这个增长公约只考虑了供应方面的政策，而没有考虑高失业率国家的需求不足问题。
• Politicians often over-estimate the potential for supply side policies to improve the long term growth rate. For example, in the 1980s, the UK pursued several relatively successful supply-side policies (privatisation, reduce the power of unions, lower income tax). But, there was no economic miracle, when growth went above the long-run trend rate of 2.5% – it proved unsustainable and led to boom and bust. 政治家们往往高估了供应方政策对提高长期增长率的潜力。例如，在20世纪80年代，英国推行了几个相对成功的供应方政策（私有化、减少工会的权力、降低所得税）。但是，当增长超过2.5%的长期趋势率时，并没有出现经济奇迹--事实证明它是不可持续的，并导致了繁荣和萧条。